SpaceX Stock at $115: Why Wall Street Is Stripping Out the AI Premium

BREAKOUTBULLETIN THESIS

The market isn't pricing SpaceX for failure. It's refusing to pay for the AI story until monetization is visible–the same discipline now applied across every AI-capex name.

What the Headline Is Really Saying

The Forbes line sounds apocalyptic; the mechanics are mundane. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has argued that at roughly $100 per share, the market would be assigning zero value to SpaceX's AI segment–everything above that level is the rest of the business: launch and Starlink connectivity. With the stock recently near $115, that's about $15 of room before the AI "call option" is priced at nothing.

The "$100 threshold" explained: Jonas's framework assumes the core launch and Starlink connectivity businesses are worth approximately $100 per share in a base-case scenario. Above that level sits the optionality for AI compute–an unproven, capital-intensive venture that the market is increasingly refusing to capitalize until earnings visibility improves.

That's a valuation debate, not a business obituary. Jonas's base case is still $300, inside an intentionally wide $75–$600 range that tells you how little consensus there is on what the AI and satellite build-out is ultimately worth.

Even in Morgan Stanley's base case–which Jonas himself describes as conservative–SpaceX offers roughly 160% implied upside from current levels (~$115 → $300). The debate is not about the company's survival, but about how much AI optionality gets included in that price.

The Real Mechanism: AI as a Separate Call Option

The important shift is how the market is segmenting value. SpaceX is no longer priced simply as "rockets plus satellites." Jonas's framework splits it into launch (Starship), connectivity (Starlink), and AI compute–and the recent selloff implies some investors are marking that AI piece near zero.

Bloomberg's reporting captured the same read: many ascribe little or even negative value to the AI effort because capex is heavy, the economics are unproven, and it absorbs a large share of management attention. Only Starlink is currently profitable, according to Bloomberg's analysis; launch and AI run at a loss.

The "zero" vs. "negative" distinction matters: Zero means the market is paying nothing for the optionality–a free option that may or may not pay off. Negative means the capex is seen as actively value-destructive; the stock should trade below the core-business threshold. Most analysts are closer to zero than negative, but the uncertainty itself is the signal investors are pricing in.

So when the stock falls, the market isn't necessarily doubting rockets–it's stripping out the part of the story it can't yet see earnings for.

The Numbers That Matter

SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026 at $135 per share on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX–the largest IPO in history at a valuation of $1.77 trillion. The stock later soared as high as $225.64 before round-tripping to the low-$100s. The analyst targets span a remarkable range:

Every initiation is buy-equivalent, yet none within shouting distance of the others on magnitude. Morgan Stanley's own model assumes revenue climbing from under $20B in 2025 toward roughly $319B by 2030–but it also flags capex potentially reaching ~$300B a year by 2031. That gap–enormous revenue promised, enormous spending required first–is exactly what the market is discounting today.

Near-term supply catalyst: Two events are converging that make the $100 test a near-term reality. On August 4, SpaceX will host its first earnings call as a public company. Then, just two days later on August 6, the company's first lockup expiration unlocks up to 911.5 million insider shares–roughly 20% of restricted holdings–for potential sale. That's approximately $116 billion worth of stock that becomes eligible to trade. The combination of an unproven earnings record and a massive supply overhang is precisely what has traders pricing in a test of that $100 AI-valuation line.

Why This Is the AI-Capex Debate in Miniature

This is the same pattern showing up across AI names: investors will pay for future infrastructure only when they can see the earnings path. When capex rises faster than near-term monetization, the market aggressively separates the "core" business from the "AI narrative" and refuses to capitalize the latter until it's proven.

SpaceX is just the most vivid version–a company whose bull case (AI as more than 60% of value) and bear case (AI worth roughly nothing) are separated by a factor of eight. The stock is a live experiment in how much optionality the market will pay for without proof.

Three Ways to Read It

HEADLINE

SpaceX's AI value is under pressure.

DEEPER

The market wants proof of monetization before crediting AI optionality with much value. The $100 per share level is the line where investors say: "We'll pay for rockets and satellites; show us the AI revenue before we pay for that too."

INVESTOR

A textbook case of AI capex getting re-rated when earnings visibility is weak. The wide target range ($75–$600) signals that consensus has not formed; the next leg depends on Starlink margins, AI compute deployment, and the August earnings/lockup double-header.

Investment Takeaway: The Proof Points That Flip the Option Back On

The useful angle isn't "SpaceX is dead." It's that markets pay for AI infrastructure only once the earnings path is visible–and until then, they'll price the option near zero.

The first proof points that flip the option back on:

• Starlink margins – If Starlink demonstrates sustained profitability and margin expansion, it validates the core connectivity business and provides a floor under the stock, making the AI option cheaper to hold.
• Compute infrastructure & power delivery – Morgan Stanley's AI valuation hinges on gigawatt-scale compute deployment for Grok (e.g., the Memphis data center cluster). Concrete progress on power delivery, cluster utilization, and hardware scaling is just as vital to investors as direct software revenue. The market needs to see that the physical infrastructure to support AI compute is actually being built and energized–not just announced.
• Concrete AI-compute revenue – Any announced customer contracts, revenue streams, or utilization metrics for SpaceX's AI infrastructure would begin to shift the AI piece from "optionality" to "earnings visibility."
• Capex efficiency – If the company demonstrates that AI spend is generating returns faster than expected, the market will begin to re-integrate the AI premium back into the valuation.

Until those proof points arrive, the debate remains unresolved–and the stock will continue to trade as a live experiment in how much optionality the market will pay for without proof.

SOURCES: Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas) · Forbes · Bloomberg · TheStreet · CNBC · Yahoo Finance · Nasdaq.com

For educational and informational purposes only. BreakoutBulletin provides market analysis and observations, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Prices and analyst targets are point-in-time and subject to change.

Potential Accuracy Notes

• The statement that SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026 under the ticker SPCX at a $1.77 trillion valuation is a factual claim that should be independently verified.
• The statements regarding August 4 earnings, August 6 lockup expiration, and 911.5 million insider shares becoming eligible for sale are time-specific factual claims that should be independently verified.
• The analyst target table and Morgan Stanley revenue/capex projections are factual claims that should be verified against the cited research reports.
• The statement that "Only Starlink is currently profitable" is a factual claim attributed to Bloomberg and should be verified against the original reporting.