🛢 Energy Complex
WTI Crude ($63.98, +0.03%)
- Catalyst: Inventories down 3.8M barrels; geopolitical disruptions tighten supply.
- Educator’s Cheat Sheet: Support at $63.40, resistance $64.40. This $1 band is key—hold above $63.40, and bulls argue the pullback is just digestion. Break below, and you risk a momentum shift.
- Narrative: Hedge funds have piled in long—the heaviest in 3 months. This is less about “demand booming” and more about traders hedging against supply shocks.
Brent Crude ($66.72, +0.14%)
- Anchored by $66.00 support, capped at $67.20. Brent’s premium to WTI reflects global risk premium—Middle East supply lines are the wild card.
Natural Gas ($2.94, –0.47%)
- Storage builds and mild weather have capped prices. Support at $2.90 is like the floorboards of an old house—creaky but holding. Below it, sellers may test $2.80 quickly. Resistance at $3.00 remains psychological.
🪙 Precious Metals
Gold ($3,777, –0.20%)
- Catalyst: Weaker dollar + lower yields = stronger gold bid. ETF inflows confirm institutional appetite.
- Cheat Sheet: $3,745 support, $3,785 resistance. Think of $3,785 as the “magnet” level—price keeps gravitating toward it whenever real yields soften.
Silver ($37.78, flat)
- Support at $37.50, resistance $38.00. Silver is acting like gold’s loyal shadow—less flashy, but echoing bullion’s moves.
⚙️ Industrial Metals
Copper ($4.47, +0.74%)
- Catalyst: Chinese PMI weakness capped gains, but unusual call buying signals expectations for volatility. Hedge funds re-adding length.
- Cheat Sheet: $4.42 support, $4.50 resistance. These levels are magnets for “Dr. Copper,” often seen as the health report of global growth.
- Narrative: Copper is the canary in the coal mine; its refusal to break down shows that while growth jitters exist, the market is betting on resilience.
🌾 Agriculture
Wheat ($509.87, –1.0%)
- Catalyst: Brazilian harvest pressure + WASDE reports weighing. Hedge funds rotating away from grains.
- Cheat Sheet: $505 support is critical—break it, and trend followers will press shorts. Resistance at $515 caps bounces.
Soybeans ($998.13, –1.18%)
- $990 support, $1,010 resistance. Sub-$1,000 is as much psychological as technical—think of it as a line that traders don’t want to see broken. Weather in Brazil remains the swing factor.
🏦 The Smart Money Lens
- Flows: Record ETF inflows into gold last week; hedge funds boosted crude longs to 3-month highs. Copper saw renewed speculative buying.
- Positioning: Funds cutting exposure in grains, reallocating to metals and energy—classic rotation toward defensives.
- Options: Heavy call buying in copper and energy suggests traders are hedging for upside volatility—expect fireworks if macro headlines hit.
Smart money isn’t betting on a booming economy. They’re hedging supply risk and parking in defensive metals.
📘 The Educator’s Playbook: Scenarios to Watch
- Bullish Energy Scenario: API/EIA show deeper inventory draws, geopolitical tensions escalate. WTI could retest $65, Brent $68.
- Bearish Energy Scenario: OPEC+ announces supply hike, US inventory builds surprise. WTI slips under $63, testing $61.
- Bullish Metals Scenario: Dollar continues to soften into Friday’s PCE data. Gold breaks $3,785, Silver clears $38.
- Bearish Metals Scenario: Yields rebound, Powell strikes hawkish tone. Gold dips below $3,745.
- Bullish Agri Scenario: Weather disruptions in Brazil; wheat/soy bounce off support.
- Bearish Agri Scenario: WASDE confirms bumper supply, hedge funds keep unwinding. Wheat breaks $505, soybeans slip sub-$990.
❓ FAQ: Answering Trader Questions
Q: Why is copper up while wheat and soybeans are down?
Because copper is tied to industrial growth expectations (demand pull), while agri markets are dominated by supply forecasts (harvest pressure).
Q: Why are hedge funds so long crude despite weak growth signals?
It’s less about demand optimism and more about hedging supply risks—geopolitics, inventories, and OPEC uncertainty.
Q: Is gold really a “safe haven” if equities are also strong?
Yes—gold is benefiting from lower yields and weaker dollar, but ETF inflows suggest investors want a portfolio hedge, not just risk-off.
Q: What’s the single most important level to watch today?
For energy traders: WTI $63.40. For metals traders: Gold $3,785. These are inflection points for sentiment.
🏁 The Bottom Line
Commodities today are balancing growth jitters and supply fears. Energy and metals are supported by macro tailwinds (weak dollar, low yields, geopolitics), while agriculture battles supply headwinds. For traders, the day’s lesson is clear: respect the cheat sheet levels—they are where narrative meets price.
